Disruptive Innovation: A Dedicated Forecasting Framework

Sanaa Diab*, John Kanyaru, Hind Zantout

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)


This paper describes the design of a forecasting framework to predict disruptive innovations. First, the nature and characteristics of disruptive innovation are presented, as well as the conditions that enable such a phenomenon. Individual factors that feed into disruptive innovations are identified, as well as formulae to allocate quantifiable measurement to these factors. Suitable principles from two existing approaches to forecasting are adopted to put forward a new framework. This will consist of a four-step process that uses both mathematical models and the judgemental method. The findings are based on work that is part of a MSc dissertation [1].

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAgent and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications
Subtitle of host publication9th KES International Conference, KES-AMSTA 2015 Sorrento, Italy, June 2015, Proceedings
EditorsGordon Jezic, Robert J. Howlett, Lakhmi C. Jain
Number of pages11
VolumePart IV
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-19728-9
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-19727-2
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Event9th International KES Conference on Agents and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications - Sorrento, Italy
Duration: 17 Jun 201519 Jun 2015

Publication series

NameSmart Innovation Systems and Technologies
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
ISSN (Print)2190-3018


Conference9th International KES Conference on Agents and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications
Abbreviated titleKES-AMSTA 15


  • Disruptive innovation
  • Forecasting models
  • Sales drivers modeling
  • Social media
  • Technology market


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