Differences in European mortality rates: a geometric approach on the age–period plane

Marcus C. Christiansen*, Evgeny Spodarev, Verena Unseld

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
354 Downloads (Pure)


Age and period are the most widely used parameters for forecasting mortality rates. Empirical mortality rate differences in multiple populations often show strong geometric patterns on the two-dimensional age–period plane. The idea of this paper is to take these geometric patterns as the starting point for the development of forecasts. A parametric approach is presented and discussed which uses simple techniques from spatial statistics. The proposed model is statistically parsimonious and yields forecasts that are consistent with the historical data and coherent for multiple populations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)477-502
Number of pages26
JournalASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA
Issue number3
Early online date3 Jul 2015
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2015


  • Box–Cox transform
  • conditional simulation
  • Gaussian random fields
  • geostatistics
  • Kriging
  • modeling multiple populations
  • Mortality forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Accounting
  • Economics and Econometrics


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