A bottom-up modeling approach is presented that uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to develop demand profiles. The demand profiles are combined with the electrical characteristics of the appliance to create detailed time-varying models of residential loads suitable for the analysis of smart grid applications and low-voltage (LV) demand-side management. The results obtained demonstrate significant temporal variations in the electrical characteristics of LV customers that are not captured by existing load profile or load model development approaches. The software developed within this work is made freely available for use by the community.
Colin, A., Tsagarakis, G., Kiprakis, A., & McLaughlin, S. (2014). Development of Low-Voltage Load Models for the Residential Load Sector. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 29(5), 2180-2188. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2301949