Abstract
This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992-2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 433-444 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2015 |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth -
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Keywords
- Africa
- conflicts
- night-time lights
- rainfall
- Spatial econometrics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Sociology and Political Science
- Political Science and International Relations
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
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