Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights

Achim Ahrens

doi:10.1515/peps-2015-0013

Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights

Achim Ahrens^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992-2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	433-444
Number of pages	12
Journal	Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Volume	21
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2015-0013
Publication status	Published - Dec 2015

Keywords

Africa
conflicts
night-time lights
rainfall
Spatial econometrics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics
Sociology and Political Science
Political Science and International Relations
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1515/peps-2015-0013

Cite this

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abstract = "This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992-2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.",

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AB - This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992-2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.

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KW - conflicts

KW - night-time lights

KW - rainfall

KW - Spatial econometrics

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JF - Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy

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ER -

Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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