Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

Camilo Mora, Chih Lin Wei, Audrey Rollo, Teresa Amaro, Amy R. Baco, David Billett, Laurent Bopp, Qi Chen, Mark Collier, Roberto Danovaro, Andrew J. Gooday, Benjamin M. Grupe, Paul R. Halloran, Jeroen Ingels, Daniel O.B. Jones, Lisa A. Levin, Hideyuki Nakano, Karl Norling, Eva Ramirez-Llodra, Michael Rex & 9 others Henry A. Ruhl, Craig R. Smith, Andrew K. Sweetman, Andrew R. Thurber, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Paolo Usseglio, Les Watling, Tongwen Wu, Moriaki Yasuhara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere1001682
JournalPLoS Biology
Volume11
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Oct 2013

Fingerprint

Biogeochemistry
biogeochemistry
Greenhouse gases
Oceans and Seas
oceans
Productivity
Biodiversity
Gas emissions
Ocean habitats
Oxygen
Aquatic ecosystems
Oxygenation
Acidification
Climate change
Ecosystems
Ecosystem
Gases
Earth (planet)
greenhouse gas emissions
Cooling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Mora, C., Wei, C. L., Rollo, A., Amaro, T., Baco, A. R., Billett, D., ... Yasuhara, M. (2013). Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century. PLoS Biology, 11(10), [e1001682]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682
Mora, Camilo ; Wei, Chih Lin ; Rollo, Audrey ; Amaro, Teresa ; Baco, Amy R. ; Billett, David ; Bopp, Laurent ; Chen, Qi ; Collier, Mark ; Danovaro, Roberto ; Gooday, Andrew J. ; Grupe, Benjamin M. ; Halloran, Paul R. ; Ingels, Jeroen ; Jones, Daniel O.B. ; Levin, Lisa A. ; Nakano, Hideyuki ; Norling, Karl ; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva ; Rex, Michael ; Ruhl, Henry A. ; Smith, Craig R. ; Sweetman, Andrew K. ; Thurber, Andrew R. ; Tjiputra, Jerry F. ; Usseglio, Paolo ; Watling, Les ; Wu, Tongwen ; Yasuhara, Moriaki. / Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century. In: PLoS Biology. 2013 ; Vol. 11, No. 10.
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abstract = "Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.",
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Mora, C, Wei, CL, Rollo, A, Amaro, T, Baco, AR, Billett, D, Bopp, L, Chen, Q, Collier, M, Danovaro, R, Gooday, AJ, Grupe, BM, Halloran, PR, Ingels, J, Jones, DOB, Levin, LA, Nakano, H, Norling, K, Ramirez-Llodra, E, Rex, M, Ruhl, HA, Smith, CR, Sweetman, AK, Thurber, AR, Tjiputra, JF, Usseglio, P, Watling, L, Wu, T & Yasuhara, M 2013, 'Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century', PLoS Biology, vol. 11, no. 10, e1001682. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682

Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century. / Mora, Camilo; Wei, Chih Lin; Rollo, Audrey; Amaro, Teresa; Baco, Amy R.; Billett, David; Bopp, Laurent; Chen, Qi; Collier, Mark; Danovaro, Roberto; Gooday, Andrew J.; Grupe, Benjamin M.; Halloran, Paul R.; Ingels, Jeroen; Jones, Daniel O.B.; Levin, Lisa A.; Nakano, Hideyuki; Norling, Karl; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Rex, Michael; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Craig R.; Sweetman, Andrew K.; Thurber, Andrew R.; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Usseglio, Paolo; Watling, Les; Wu, Tongwen; Yasuhara, Moriaki.

In: PLoS Biology, Vol. 11, No. 10, e1001682, 15.10.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

AU - Mora, Camilo

AU - Wei, Chih Lin

AU - Rollo, Audrey

AU - Amaro, Teresa

AU - Baco, Amy R.

AU - Billett, David

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Chen, Qi

AU - Collier, Mark

AU - Danovaro, Roberto

AU - Gooday, Andrew J.

AU - Grupe, Benjamin M.

AU - Halloran, Paul R.

AU - Ingels, Jeroen

AU - Jones, Daniel O.B.

AU - Levin, Lisa A.

AU - Nakano, Hideyuki

AU - Norling, Karl

AU - Ramirez-Llodra, Eva

AU - Rex, Michael

AU - Ruhl, Henry A.

AU - Smith, Craig R.

AU - Sweetman, Andrew K.

AU - Thurber, Andrew R.

AU - Tjiputra, Jerry F.

AU - Usseglio, Paolo

AU - Watling, Les

AU - Wu, Tongwen

AU - Yasuhara, Moriaki

PY - 2013/10/15

Y1 - 2013/10/15

N2 - Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

AB - Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

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U2 - 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682

DO - 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682

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