Associating Climatic Trends with Stochastic Modelling of Flow Sequences

Sandhya Patidar, Eleanor Tanner, Soundharajan Bankaru-Swamy, Bhaskar Sen Gupta

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Abstract

Water is essential to all lifeforms including various ecological, geological, hydrological, and climatic processes/activities. With the changing climate, associated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events appear to stimulate highly uncertain patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotran-spiration (EV) processes across the globe. Changes in P and EV patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model’s efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Article number255
JournalGeosciences
Volume11
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jun 2021

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • Extreme events modelling
  • Stochastic modelling
  • Streamflow

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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