A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.
|Number of pages||21|
|Journal||Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability|
|Publication status||Published - Mar 2001|