Approximations for the long-term behaviour of an open-population epidemic model

Damian Clancy; Philip D. O'Neill; Philip Pollett

doi:10.1023/A:1011418208496

Approximations for the long-term behaviour of an open-population epidemic model

Damian Clancy, Philip D. O'Neill, Philip Pollett

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	75-95
Number of pages	21
Journal	Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability
Volume	3
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011418208496
Publication status	Published - Mar 2001

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abstract = "A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.",

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AB - A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.

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Approximations for the long-term behaviour of an open-population epidemic model

Abstract

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