Allowing for uncertainties in the modelling of masonry compressive strength

This paper considers the compressive strength of masonry composed of mortar and clay bricks. By collecting data from published experimental results, the main objective is to assess the uncertainty in several models proposed either in the literature or herein for the prediction of masonry compressive strength. Furthermore, where possible, models suggested in representative design codes are also examined in the same manner. It is found that existing models give highly uncertain values of the compressive strength, whereas code values are uncertain as well as perhaps over-conservative. Using the collected experimental results new models are proposed based on regression analyses involving the mortar and brick compressive strengths and several other parameters relating to the geometry of the brick units, mortar joints or the wall. A decision aid is also introduced, which may be used for establishing which of the proposed models is most suitable. Additionally, incorporation of a model uncertainty factor is also achieved. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.