### Abstract

Language | English |
---|---|

Pages | 195-207 |

Number of pages | 13 |

Journal | Advances in Water Resources |

Volume | 116 |

Early online date | 13 Nov 2017 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - Jun 2018 |

### Fingerprint

### Cite this

*Advances in Water Resources*,

*116*, 195-207. DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.013

}

*Advances in Water Resources*, vol. 116, pp. 195-207. DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.013

**Accounting for model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems using a local basis approach.** / Köpke, Corinna; Irving, James; Elsheikh, Ahmed H.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - Accounting for model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems using a local basis approach

AU - Köpke,Corinna

AU - Irving,James

AU - Elsheikh,Ahmed H.

PY - 2018/6

Y1 - 2018/6

N2 - Bayesian solutions to geophysical and hydrological inverse problems are dependent upon a forward model linking subsurface physical properties to measured data, which is typically assumed to be perfectly known in the inversion procedure. However, to make the stochastic solution of the inverse problem computationally tractable using methods such as Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC), fast approximations of the forward model are commonly employed. This gives rise to model error, which has the potential to significantly bias posterior statistics if not properly accounted for. Here, we present a new methodology for dealing with the model error arising from the use of approximate forward solvers in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems. Our approach is geared towards the common case where this error cannot be (i) effectively characterized through some parametric statistical distribution; or (ii) estimated by interpolating between a small number of computed model-error realizations. To this end, we focus on identification and removal of the model-error component of the residual during MCMC using a projection-based approach, whereby the orthogonal basis employed for the projection is derived in each iteration from the K-nearest-neighboring entries in a model-error dictionary. The latter is constructed during the inversion and grows at a specified rate as the iterations proceed. We demonstrate the performance of our technique on the inversion of synthetic crosshole ground-penetrating radar travel-time data considering three different subsurface parameterizations of varying complexity. Synthetic data are generated using the eikonal equation, whereas a straight-ray forward model is assumed for their inversion. In each case, our developed approach enables us to remove posterior bias and obtain a more realistic characterization of uncertainty.

AB - Bayesian solutions to geophysical and hydrological inverse problems are dependent upon a forward model linking subsurface physical properties to measured data, which is typically assumed to be perfectly known in the inversion procedure. However, to make the stochastic solution of the inverse problem computationally tractable using methods such as Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC), fast approximations of the forward model are commonly employed. This gives rise to model error, which has the potential to significantly bias posterior statistics if not properly accounted for. Here, we present a new methodology for dealing with the model error arising from the use of approximate forward solvers in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems. Our approach is geared towards the common case where this error cannot be (i) effectively characterized through some parametric statistical distribution; or (ii) estimated by interpolating between a small number of computed model-error realizations. To this end, we focus on identification and removal of the model-error component of the residual during MCMC using a projection-based approach, whereby the orthogonal basis employed for the projection is derived in each iteration from the K-nearest-neighboring entries in a model-error dictionary. The latter is constructed during the inversion and grows at a specified rate as the iterations proceed. We demonstrate the performance of our technique on the inversion of synthetic crosshole ground-penetrating radar travel-time data considering three different subsurface parameterizations of varying complexity. Synthetic data are generated using the eikonal equation, whereas a straight-ray forward model is assumed for their inversion. In each case, our developed approach enables us to remove posterior bias and obtain a more realistic characterization of uncertainty.

U2 - 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.013

DO - 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.013

M3 - Article

VL - 116

SP - 195

EP - 207

JO - Advances in Water Resources

T2 - Advances in Water Resources

JF - Advances in Water Resources

SN - 0309-1708

ER -