A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies

Andrew Glover, Andrew White

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110014
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume484
Early online date23 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 23 Sep 2019

Fingerprint

Yellow fever virus
Yellow Fever
Superinfection
dengue
Dengue
Vaccination
vaccination
Pathogens
case studies
Infection
Dengue Vaccines
Vaccines
Vaccine
Parameterization
Endemic Diseases
pathogens
Coinfection
mixed infection
Model
Mathematical Model

Keywords

  • Dengue
  • Mathematical model
  • Superinfection exclusion
  • Vaccination
  • Yellow fever

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

@article{2ab871c1a377412483104d3068206324,
title = "A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies",
abstract = "Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.",
keywords = "Dengue, Mathematical model, Superinfection exclusion, Vaccination, Yellow fever",
author = "Andrew Glover and Andrew White",
year = "2019",
month = "9",
day = "23",
doi = "10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110014",
language = "English",
volume = "484",
journal = "Journal of Theoretical Biology",
issn = "0022-5193",
publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies

AU - Glover, Andrew

AU - White, Andrew

PY - 2019/9/23

Y1 - 2019/9/23

N2 - Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.

AB - Superinfection exclusion is a phenomenon whereby the co-infection of a host with a secondary pathogen is prevented due to a current infection by another closely-related pathogenic strain. We construct a novel vector-host mathematical model for two pathogens that exhibit superinfection exclusion and simultaneously account for vaccination strategies against them. We then derive the conditions under which an endemic disease will prevent the establishment of another through the action of superinfection exclusion and show that vaccination against the endemic strain can enable the previously suppressed strain to invade the population. Through appropriate parameterisation of the model for dengue and yellow fever we find that superinfection exclusion alone is unlikely to explain the absence of yellow fever in many regions where dengue is endemic, and that the rollout of the recently licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia, is unlikely to enable the establishment of Yellow Fever in regions where it has previously been absent.

KW - Dengue

KW - Mathematical model

KW - Superinfection exclusion

KW - Vaccination

KW - Yellow fever

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85072850741&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110014

DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110014

M3 - Article

VL - 484

JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology

JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology

SN - 0022-5193

M1 - 110014

ER -