Abstract
Purpose
The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper begins by studying house price trends and cycles in OECD countries since 2000 to identify housing cycle patterns. It then assesses existing theories partly in relation to these patterns. It then proposes a new conceptualisation of the housing cycle.
Findings
The paper finds the central role of supply lags in housing cycles is not warranted. Instead, a demand cycle generated by upgrading desires better explains an initial boom followed by a slow recovery.
Originality/value
The paper challenges existing orthodoxy on housing cycle dynamics and proposes an alternative perspective.
The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper begins by studying house price trends and cycles in OECD countries since 2000 to identify housing cycle patterns. It then assesses existing theories partly in relation to these patterns. It then proposes a new conceptualisation of the housing cycle.
Findings
The paper finds the central role of supply lags in housing cycles is not warranted. Instead, a demand cycle generated by upgrading desires better explains an initial boom followed by a slow recovery.
Originality/value
The paper challenges existing orthodoxy on housing cycle dynamics and proposes an alternative perspective.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 328-339 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Journal of European Real Estate Research |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 19 Oct 2023 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 24 Nov 2023 |
Keywords
- House prices
- Housing cycles
- OECD countries
- Owner occupation
- Supply lags: upgrading
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Accounting
- Finance
- Economics and Econometrics