A reconceptualisation of the housing cycle based on household upgrading desires

Colin Jones*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

Purpose
The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.

Design/methodology/approach
The paper begins by studying house price trends and cycles in OECD countries since 2000 to identify housing cycle patterns. It then assesses existing theories partly in relation to these patterns. It then proposes a new conceptualisation of the housing cycle.

Findings
The paper finds the central role of supply lags in housing cycles is not warranted. Instead, a demand cycle generated by upgrading desires better explains an initial boom followed by a slow recovery.

Originality/value
The paper challenges existing orthodoxy on housing cycle dynamics and proposes an alternative perspective.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)328-339
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of European Real Estate Research
Volume16
Issue number3
Early online date19 Oct 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 24 Nov 2023

Keywords

  • House prices
  • Housing cycles
  • OECD countries
  • Owner occupation
  • Supply lags: upgrading

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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