A model for ischaemic heart disease and stroke III: Applications

Tushar Chatterjee, Angus Smith Macdonald, Howard Richard Waters

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


This is the third in a series of three papers. In the first paper we describe a comprehensive stochastic
model of an individual's lifetime that includes diagnosis with ischaemic heart disease and stroke
and also the development of the major risk factors for these conditions. The second paper discusses
in some detail models for changes in body mass index (BMI) and also the effects of these changes,
in particular the current trend towards increasing prevalence of obesity, on diabetes, cardiovascular
diseases and expected future lifetime. This paper is devoted to the following applications of the
model described in the first paper:
(a) quantifying the effects of smoking and of changes in smoking habits, and,
(b) quantifying the effects of treatment with statins (drugs designed to lower cholesterol).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)105-120
Number of pages16
JournalAnnals of Actuarial Science
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2008


  • Diabetes
  • Framingham Heart Study
  • hypercholesterolaemia
  • hypertension
  • ischaemic heart disease
  • Markov model
  • mortality
  • smoking
  • statins
  • stroke


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