A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock

David M. Oliver, Phil Bartie, A. Louise Heathwaite, Sim M. Reaney, Jared A. Q. Parnell, Richard S. Quilliam

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen & Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock. The model was applied to the River Ayr and Lunan Water catchments, with significant correlations observed between area of improved grassland and the maximum total E. coli per 1 km2 grid cell (Ayr: r = 0.57; p < 0.001 , Lunan: r = 0.32; p < 0.001). There was a significant difference in the predicted maximum E. coli burden between seasons in both catchments, with summer and autumn predicted to accrue higher E. coli contributions relative to spring and winter (P < 0.001), driven largely by livestock presence. The ViPER model thus describes, at the landscape scale, spatial nuances in the vulnerability of E. coli loading to land as driven by stocking density and livestock grazing regimes. Resulting risk maps therefore provide the underpinning evidence to inform spatially-targeted decision-making with respect to managing sources of E. coli in agricultural environments.
LanguageEnglish
Pages678-687
Number of pages10
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume616-617
Early online date27 Oct 2017
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2018

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livestock
pasture
grazing
catchment
stocking density
environmental risk
water pollution
vulnerability
pathogen
agricultural land
grassland
autumn
decision making
agriculture
pollutant
winter
summer
river
water
land

Keywords

  • agriculture decision-making diffuse pollution faecal indicator organism risk screening

Cite this

Oliver, David M. ; Bartie, Phil ; Heathwaite, A. Louise ; Reaney, Sim M. ; Parnell, Jared A. Q. ; Quilliam, Richard S./ A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2018 ; Vol. 616-617. pp. 678-687
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A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock. / Oliver, David M.; Bartie, Phil; Heathwaite, A. Louise; Reaney, Sim M.; Parnell, Jared A. Q.; Quilliam, Richard S.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 616-617, 03.2018, p. 678-687.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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