Description of impact
This research provides a critical evidence base for the transition of Scotland's Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) fleet to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). By employing Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), the study mapped the operational feasibility of national charging infrastructure. The findings have directly informed policy deliberations within the Scottish Parliament regarding Net Zero targets, freight logistics strategy, and the practicalities of national energy requirements.Who is affected
1) Policy Makers: Specifically the Scottish Government and Transport Scotland, in determining infrastructure investment priorities.2) Logistics & Freight Operators: Companies requiring operational certainty regarding vehicle range, payload capacities, and journey time penalties.
3) Energy Infrastructure Providers: Stakeholders involved in the strategic placement and capacity planning of 350kW and 500kW rapid-charging hubs.
4) The Scottish Public: Beneficiaries of accelerated transport dekarbonisation, improved air quality, and the progress toward national climate obligations.
Narrative
The transition to zero-emission heavy haulage faces significant hurdles, primarily concerning "range anxiety" and operational efficiency. This project addressed these challenges by developing a sophisticated Agent-Based Model to simulate a 100% transition of the Scottish HGV fleet to electric power. Using conservative assumptions (such as 44-tonne vehicles with 350 kWh usable battery capacity) the model provided a realistic "stress test" of current and proposed infrastructure.The impact of this research is evidenced by its utilisation as a key briefing and discussion point within the Scottish Parliament. By providing data-driven insights into how the fleet would behave under different charging scenarios, the study moved the conversation from theoretical targets to operational realities.
Key insights that shaped the policy dialogue include:
1) Infrastructure Optimisation: The finding that 70% of routes could be completed using depot charging alone, significantly clarifying the required scale of the public en-route network.
2) Operational Viability: Demonstrating that a mixed charging strategy supports over 90% of current journeys, albeit with identified journey time penalties of 30–40%.
3) Technology Appraisal: Providing evidence that 500kW chargers offer diminishing returns compared to 350kW units in terms of average route time increases, allowing for more cost-effective infrastructure procurement.
This work serves as a foundational reference for Scottish transport planners, ensuring that the roadmap to a green logistics sector is both ambitious and grounded in rigorous simulation.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/towards-zero-emission-hgv-infrastructure-in-scotland-phase-2-report/changes-to-hgv-operation/
| Impact status | Achieved |
|---|---|
| Impact date | 2025 |
| Category of impact | Societal |
| Impact level | National |